A quiet weekend on both sides of the Atlantic this week, with the biggest fight of the year taking centre stage on Cinco De Mayo –
Canelo Alvarez v Danny Jacobs, WBC World, WBA Super World & IBF World Middleweight Titles
The biggest fight of the week, month, and arguably all of 2019 is happening Saturday night (Sunday morning for the Brits) live on Sky Sports. Boxing’s biggest star, WBC and WBA Super World Champion Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez returns on Cinco De Mayo weekend to take on IBF World Champion, Miracle Man Danny Jacobs in what (on paper at least) is a mouth-watering contest.
I can’t see this being anything other than a great, back and forth boxing match between the two best Middleweights (depending what Golovkin does after his next fight). Canelo is for me a surprising 2/9 massive favourite, Jacobs comes in 3/1, and a (not totally out of the question, there is a re-match clause here) draw 20/1. I expected around 1/3 or 2/5 for the Mexican, but the bookmakers disagree.
Jacobs gave Golovkin absolute hell in their fight so should maybe be given more respect here. Perhaps the most important factor in this fight is the location, Las Vegas. Canelo has fought 4 times in Vegas, and has got the benefit of the doubt in every fight.
September 2013, Mayweather. Yes, he lost, but this was never in a million years as close a fight as the majority decision indicated.
July 2014, Lara. Split decision win for Canelo in a fight many thought Lara won.
September 2017, Golovkin. Draw. Many, if not most, thought Canelo clearly lost.
September 2018, Golovkin re-match. Majority decision win. There were many out there who again, thought Golovkin deserved the nod here as well.
Mayweather aside, i’m not implying Canelo clearly lost to Lara or Golovkin (first fight aside), but it does seem he gets the benefit of the doubt in close fights fighting in Vegas.
An added potential obstacle for Jacobs, is the same three judges who scored Canelo-GGG II are going to be the judges for this fight. So Jacobs may need to win very clearly, or knock out Canelo (I don’t think there ischance he stops Canelo. If you do, you can get it at around 8/1).
It’s worth taking into account Jacobs’ last four fights — Golovkin, Arias, Suliecki, and Derevyanchenko — have all went the full 12 rounds. He gave Golovkin all he could handle, and gave Triple G his most difficult fight to date before Canelo. If both Canelo and Jacobs can take the power of Golovkin (Jacobs was knocked down in the 4th round during their fight but rebounded brilliantly), it’s hard to see either man winning by stoppage here, barring a bad cut or injury to either. If it’s a close fight, Canelo will probably get the nod on the cards being the “A” side and DAZN golden boy.
This fight should and probably will go 12 rounds, so the odds of 1/2 are well worth taking. Canelo is 5/6 to win on points, and Jacobs a massive 6/1. Canelo should win here let’s be honest, and he will surely have that 3rd Golovkin fight on his mind as motivation (if he needs any). The 5/6 are great odds. If you’re after a bigger win, to me there are 3 options worth looking at, Canelo UD 11/8, Canelo MD 10/1, or Canelo SD also 10/1. The MD could be worth a couple of quid as the fight should have a lot of “pick em” rounds where you really have no idea who won, and you end going with what you like. In the end the judges should like more of what Canelo does as he’s the better overall fighter. Hopefully we get a cracking fight where we end up talking about the boxers rather than the judges for a change.
BNC Tip – Alvarez to win on points (5/6), Fight to go 12 rounds (1/2)
Other Notable Fight
John Ryder v Bilal Akkawy – If Ryder wants to be taken at all serious he needs to win here on the Canelo/Jacobs undercard. He won’t ever get a better chance to get his name out there. Since being beaten by Rocky Fielding he’s put together a nice little run of wins over Nielsen, Cox and Sirotkin, all by stoppage. Australian Akkaway is an unknown here, and is fighting in his first scheduled 12 rounder (unless they change this to 10 on the night). He has fought no one of note so far, so Ryder is his biggest test to date. 16 KO’s in 20 fights show he has some power at the domestic level, but whether he can carry that up to hurt better fighters is to be tested on Saturday. The bookies have Ryder 4/9 and Akkawy 13/8, so they expect this to be a fairly close affair. To keep his run of KO’s going, Ryder is 9/2, but I expect him to win a tougher than expected fight on the judges scorecard at 10/11. If you fany Akkawy to walk away the winner, you can get 7/2 for the points win and 9/2 for the stoppage. 1/3 for this to go the distance, very likely.
BNC Tip – Ryder to win on points (10/11)
BNC Quick Hitters
Artur Beterbiev v Radivoje Kaladjdzic, IBF World Light-Heavyweight Title – Nothing else other than a KO win for Beterbiev here for me, with poor odds of 1/4 for the KO. It’s just a case of when you think it will be stopped. Could be worth looking into a middle rounds stoppage, Kaladjdzic may prove durable enough to survive the early rounds but should eventually get stopped. Rounds 4-6 is what i’m looking at, around 11/5
Jerwin Ancajas v Ryuichi Funai, IBF World Super-Flyweight Title – Another one sided fight. Ancajas is a massive 1/10 outright. A KO is expected (1/2), but the points win at 9/4 could prove good value depending on Ancajas mindset. Funai has been stopped 3 times so if Ancajas wants him out of there, he will be able to eventually.