Terence Crawford (34-0) v Amir Khan (33-4) – WBO World Welterweight Title, Saturday 20th April
Top Rank are using Amir Khan in this fight. Hes a big(ish) name and no chin. So Khan is probably going to get knocked out. Again. Amir Khan has serious balls to take this fight, and has always been too brave for his own good, precisely why he’s likely to get knocked out on Saturday.
Crawford, 1/16, is a massive favourite for good reason. At worst, he’s ‘1b’ in the world rankings right now with Lomachenko ‘1a’, or vice versa. This should resemble Canelo v Khan. Khan I feel will have a lot of success early with his hand speed and boxing ability, maybe frustrating Crawford for a few rounds. If you believe in Amir’s chin, Crawford on points is around 10/3 across the board. Khan won’t win here, no chance, but if you do fancy him, he’s around 8/1 most places. For me, the inevitable will happen eventually, and Crawford will land on Khans chin. If Khan had a solid chin he would have been pound for pound ranked the majority of his career no doubt, but that chin, it’s no use to any man, never mind a boxer. Crawford is a bad man inside the ring, the last man to see the final bell was Viktor Postol in 2016. He takes his time, Julius Indongo excluded, and wears you down before finishing you off.
I expect a mid to late round stoppage, possibly around 6-8, after Khan starts to fade and ends up flat on his back. This could end up a massive knockout loss for Khan, á la Canelo. He probably shouldn’t be going anywhere near Crawford after 2 fights in 2 years and a spell in an Australian jungle, but for some reason won’t fight Kell Brook (not blameless himself) and wants to get his head smashed in under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden. I like Khan, I feel he would have a real chance to beat Brook in a massive UK fight to end both man’s careers, but a certain loss here is another nail in that never ending saga.
BNC Tip – Crawford by KO (3/10 with Bet365, well worth a big stake), Crawford rounds 7-9 (11/4 with Bet365)
Other Notable Fights
David Allen v Lucas Browne – I have absolutely no idea! However, I seem to be in the minority who thinks this is a 50/50 fight. Lucas Browne was an absolute disgrace against Dillian Whyte, losing almost every fan who thought he was a good fighter, and not much better against his 3 opponents since. He was last seen getting dropped by Kamil Sokolowski, a man beaten 15 times, in Scotland and scraping by to a points win over 6. Dave Allen is riding a high wave of success and increased fan support after recent wins over Nick Webb (a great KO win), Samir Nebo and Ariel Bracamonte.
Still, I think Browne has a chance here. This has potential to be a contender for fight of the year. Allen is a surprising (for me) 1/3 big favourite, Browne is around 9/4. There’s not going to be much defensive prowess when these two fight, it’s likely to be bombs away until one man falls. I can’t see this going to distance, and probably slightly fancy Allen to pull off a minor upset. However, if Browne is fully motivated, isn’t as fat, and 100% serious on Saturday, he could have enough to beat Allen even at 40 years old. Either man to win by KO is a good shout in this one. You could do a lot worse than backing a fully focused Lucas Browne to knock out Allen at 15/4.
Could be worth hanging off on this one and getting on in-play after a round or two to see how both men start, and what sort of shape Browne is in. Allen will be fit and ready to go absolutely no doubt.
BNC Tip – Lucas Browne by KO (15/4 with Bet365 and SkyBet), Under 7.5 rounds (5/6)
Danny Garcia v Adrian Granados – What to make of Danny Garcia. Another big favourite this weekend at 1/16. One of the best left hooks in boxing. He’s had a very strange career. After knocking out Amir Khan, he followed with lacklustre wins over Erik Morales and Zab Judah, then had a couple of solid wins against Lucas Matthysse and (debatably) Mauricio Herrera.
Anyone hoping for him to step up in class again had to wait almost 3 years when he fought against Keith Thurman. He lost a SD against a world class fighter and certainly gained a few fans. An easy bounce back win over Brandon Rios followed, then he stepped up in class again to challenge Shawn Porter. He lost, again to another world class fighter.
I think that’s what he is, any world class fighter he will lose against, any good fighter he will beat. So he’s going to beat Adrian Granados. I don’t think it will be easy. Granados has went 10 with Broner (arguably won) and 12 with Porter, so I fully expect him to last 12 with Danny and lose a competitive UD.
BNC Tip – Garcia to win on points (4/7), Fight to go the distance (4/9)
BNC Quick Hitters
Joe Cordina v Andy Townend – British Lightweight title on the line. Cordina, massive 1/25 favourite, is far too clever, and good, for Townend as the odds indicate. Cordina on points (15/8 could be good value with slim pickings on offer, a KO is 1/2)
Dereck Chisora v Senad Gashi – Chisora’s level this one, a big 1/10 favourite. Gashi was stopped by Carlos Takam, so expect Chisora to run over him easily to put the Whyte loss behind him. Chisora KO (4/9 with Bet365), Fight to end Rounds 4-6 (11/4 with Bet365)
Josh Kelly v Przemyslaw Runowski – Kelly, 1/100, should be able to take out Runowski if and when he wants, maybe wants to get some rounds in so later stoppage could be in play. Kelly rounds 4-6 (2/1)